The future

Interest rates may hit 8% by 2012

An influential think tank has warned that interest rates may have to rise to 8% to combat rampant inflation.

The warning comes from the Policy Exchange, whose chief economist, Andrew Lilico, argues an economic recovery will unleash a wave of money.

Doctor Lilico believes a double-dip recession is likely, which would then be followed by a boom. Read more...

David Cameron: Latest news

ELECTION 2010: Tory leader David Cameron visits Prestatyn
FRESH from his appearance on the first-ever televised leaders debate David Cameron visited Prestatyns to launch the Welsh Conservative Party’s manifesto.

Read more on The North Wales Chronicle

General election 2010: David Cameron appeals to pensioners
David Cameron, the Conservative leader, has accused Labour of 'sidelining' elderly voters and promised that older people would play a full part in society under a Tory government.

Read more on Daily Telegraph

General Election 2010: David Cameron has a week to show what he's made of
Telegraph View: To fight off Clegg, Cameron must take this campaign by the scruff of the neck.

Read more on Daily Telegraph

General Election 2010: David Cameron berated by unhappy voter
David Cameron faced an embarrassing confrontation with an unhappy constituent in front of television cameras.

Read more on Daily Telegraph

David Cameron: Britain's Next Prime Minister?
Britain's Conservative leader, David Cameron, is ahead in the race for 10 Downing Street. But the electorate still isn't sure who he is or what he stands for

Read more on Time Magazine

General election 2010: Nick Clegg defends party stance on Europe

General election: Nick Clegg says poll points to end of 'tired' politics
Voters are starting to believe that the May 6 General Election may produce a break from the ''tired choices'' offered by the two parties which have dominated British politics, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg said.

Read more on Daily Telegraph

General Election 2010: Vote Nick Clegg, get Gordon Brown, say Tories:
The Tories claim Gordon Brown could lose the election but remain Prime Minister for five more years thanks to a Lib Dem surge inspired by Nick Clegg's TV debate triumph.

Read more on Daily Mail

Election 2010: how Nick Clegg changed the game overnight for the Liberal Democrats
Nick Clegg's performance last Thursday night transformed his party's chances in the general election – and poses a serious threat to Tory hopes of victory As he was driven in a Special Branch car to Manchester at 6.30pm on Thursday evening, the last phone call Nick Clegg made before arriving at the ITV studios was to his three young boys. There was no mention during the conversation of the big ...

Read more on Guardian Unlimited

General Election 2010: Louis Theroux claims he was Nick Clegg's 'fag' at public school
Louis Theroux, the documentary-maker, has claimed he used to wake Nick Clegg up in the morning when they were at boarding school together.

Read more on Daily Telegraph

General election 2010: Nick Clegg defends party stance on Europe
Nick Clegg has defended his party's pro-European stance after being accused of trying to take Britain into a "super-state".

Read more on Daily Telegraph

Gordon Brown woos Liberal Democrats with electoral reform promise

Gordon Brown insists election is 'open' despite polls
GORDON Brown was set to tell supporters today that the general election is "wide open" in the wake of the televised leaders' debate.

Read more on The Scotsman

General Election 2010: Vote Nick Clegg, get Gordon Brown, say Tories:
The leader rejected a warning from David Cameron that a switch to the resurgent Liberal Democrats would be a 'vote Clegg, get Brown' scenario.

Read more on Daily Mail

General Election 2010: Gordon Brown vows a fight to the end
Gordon Brown tells Patrick Hennessy, Political Editor, how Labour is fighting to win 'Middle Britain' during the campaign.

Read more on Daily Telegraph

U.K. Election: 3rd place could keep Brown in power
Due to the mechanics of Britain’s voting system, a third place finish by Labour could keep incumbent Prime Minister Gordon Brown in power.

Read more on Market Watch

Gordon Brown woos Liberal Democrats with electoral reform promise
Gordon Brown makes it clear he would be able to work with Nick Clegg to try and secure electoral reform.

Read more on Daily Telegraph

Identity fraud

Identity fraud 'is set to soar' says Experian

Identity fraud is likely to accelerate in 2010 as organised criminals target the rich, according to a report.

Some 72% of ID fraud in 2009 came in the second half of the year with company directors and business owners the most at risk, Experian found.

The credit reference agency said that the number of ID fraud victims rose by 20% in 2009 compared with 2008.

London remained the UK's crime hotspot area but Salford, Manchester and Cardiff were also vulnerable, it said.

Recession effect

Experian also noted a rise in the proportion of fraud cases when people manipulated their own information in order to access financial services such as credit.

The company estimated that these numbers would increase owing to lower levels of lending and the potential for more unemployment in 2010.

"Attempted fraud is on the increase and the nature of the threat is changing," said Nick Mothershaw, of Experian.

"Organised criminal fraudsters are moving into the mass-market, looking beyond those with obvious wealth towards lower-value but more vulnerable targets.

"At the same time, financial stress brought about by the recession is driving increasing numbers of people to commit fraud to maintain their lifestyles."

From the BBC

Revised figures

Revised figures

Revised GDP figures show that the uk economy grew by 0.3% in the 4th quater of 2009.

The initial estimate last month showed a 0.1% in the last quater of 2009.

The economy had been on a slide dropping for the last six quaters. The longest period since quaterly records where first recorded in 1955.

Retail sales fall

Retail sales fall

Poor winter weather drove UK retail sales down by 1.8% between December and January, the sharpest drop in 18 months, official figures have shown.

The fall was more than three times faster than analysts had forecast. However the figures were weighed down by the inclusion of petrol in the official figures for the first time as drivers stayed at home in the snow.

The data, from the Office for National Statistics, adds to concerns about the fragility of the UK economic recovery. Sales by value were up 0.9% from January 2009. Fuel sales slipped by 11.1% on the month. When the impact of car fuel sales was stripped out, overall retail sales fell by 1.2%. Food sales fell by 2.4%, but the ONS said the cold weather had boosted sales of clothing.

Double-dip' risk

The period covers the first month since Value Added tax (VAT) returned to 17.5% after a temporary drop to 15%. This is thought to have brought some sales forward to December, thereby hurting the January figures.The data follows on from news that UK inflation had accelerated to 3.5%, that the government borrowed another £4.3bn in January to plug the growing hole in the UK's finances and there had been an unexpected rise in people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance. "January's retail sales figures round off a pretty awful week for news on the UK economy," said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics."Of course, we knew the January sales figures would be bad after the VAT rise and bad weather. But the drop is even worse than the retail surveys had suggested." He added that sales could bounce back in the coming months - but that as people's wages grew only slowly and prices roses, spending growth was likely to slow.
"At the very least, these numbers provide a very weak platform for sales in the first quarter of this year and therefore raise the chances that the economy may succumb to a double-dip uk recession," Mr Loynes said.

The so-called 'double dip' refers to an economy in recession returning to growth, then quickly contracting again.

From the bbc

UK Banks credit profile

UK Banks credit profile tumbles somewhat

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 28, 2010--We no longer classify the United
Kingdom (AAA/Negative/A-1+) among the most stable and low-risk banking systems
globally, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services noted in a report titled "Banking
Industry Country Risk Assessment: United Kingdom" published today on
RatingsDirect. This is due to our view of the country's weak economic
environment, the reputational damage we believe has been experienced by the
banking industry, and what we see as the high dependence on state-support
programs of a significant proportion of the industry.

We placed the U.K.'s banking system in Group 3 out of our 10 Banking Industry
Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) groups on Dec. 21, 2009, which primarily
reflects our view of relatively high leverage in the U.K. economy and the
losses the industry could bear during the deleveraging process. (For more
information, see "U.K. BICRA Revised Downward To Group 3 From Group 2 Due To
High Leverage In The Economy And Weak Earnings Prospects".) The scale ranges
from Group 1 (strongest) to Group 10 (weakest). The macroeconomic and banking
industrywide factors that affect the BICRA influence all bank counterparty
credit ratings in the U.K. Read more...

Darling reform

Darling pushes for reform

Switzerland (Reuters) - Chancellor Alistair Darling urged regulators, politicians and the world's leading banks to reach a swift agreement on regulatory changes to keep up momentum generated after the credit crunch.

Speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum after two hours of talks between dozens of financial sector heavyweights on Saturday, Darling said some common ground had been reached.

"What has changed is there is an acceptance on the part of banks that they need to make changes and they need to make changes quickly," Darling said in the Swiss resort of Davos.

He said areas of agreement between the sides include the need to increase capital adequacy and living wills.

Referring to a weekend press report that some top bankers had agreed on the need for a wind-down levy, Darling said this was "one of a number of ideas," but said there was no agreement: "This was a discussion forum, no agreement has been reached. Agreements of this nature have to be reached by regulators, it has go to be reached by governments, and banks."

From reuters